Study suggests criteria for predicting breast cancer risk using NICE could allow identifying up to 95% of cases within 50 years

• The study suggests that NICE criteria for predicting whether someone will develop breast cancer within 50 years could correctly identify up to 95% of them, with the risk model producing a false-positive rate of about 10 years.
• Applying the Boadicea model, which considers family history, reproductive factors, and genetic information, could identify 26.5% of women in a group of up to 50 years who will develop breast cancer.
• Researchers at University of Cambridge, ICR, Breast Cancer Now, Cancer Research UK and NICE said that the criteria for predicting breast cancer risk should be reviewed.

The study found that applying the NICE criteria for predicting whether someone will develop breast cancer within 50 years could correctly identify up to 95% of women who go on to develop the disease. The findings were published in the journal National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE).

In addition, researchers at University of Cambridge and Institute of Cancer Research, London (ICR) reviewed NICE’s criteria using a new Boadicea risk model. The researchers found that Boadicea accounts for family history, reproductive history, and genetic information.

The researchers also noted that an analysis of Breast Cancer Now Generations Study (2004-2011), involving 1,258 women followed for up to 50 years, showed that the model’s results could correctly identify more cases than NICE. In particular, the researchers found that the NICE criteria would correctly identify 1.4% of cases for screening, including 4.4% of those identified.

In a separate analysis, the researchers noted that Boadicea could correctly identify 26.5% of women aged up to 50 years who would develop breast cancer. At the same time, the study found that the model would correctly identify 35% of women aged up to 50 years who would develop breast cancer. The study also found that NICE criteria might miss 1.4% of cases for screening, including 4.4% of those identified as high risk.

The study also includes comments from Dr Juliet Usher-Smith of University of Cambridge and Prof Montserrat Garcia-Closas (ICR). Dr Usher-Smith said that the NICE criteria are based on a review of existing research, while Prof Garcia-Closas said that the uncertainty about the criteria could be due to the lack of data on genetic risk factors. She added that the new Boadicea model could help improve the accuracy of risk prediction.

The study was funded by Breast Cancer Now, which supported the research, and Cancer Research UK. Dr Simon Vincent, chief scientific officer at Breast Cancer Now, said the findings could help improve the accuracy of risk prediction. Dr Sowmiya Moorthie of Cancer Research UK said that further research is needed to understand the results.

NICE’s spokesperson said the findings were based on the analysis of existing research and that the criteria could help identify women with a higher risk of breast cancer. The spokesperson added that the results do not show that the criteria are incorrect, but that further research is needed to refine them.

The findings were published in British Journal of Cancer.

Tags: Well-being/Research