AI stocks will outperform the S&P 500 and Nasdaq in 2026

• S&P 500 and Nasdaq will rise from the start, but in red will be hit by a correction
• Investors will bet on AI-technology, and the predictors will implement the “buy the dip” strategy
• In the red, the Magnificent Seven will have lost by nearly 10%, with the focus shifting to the chipmakers

In 2026, US stocks are expected to move higher, with risks, however, tied to the pace of technological innovation. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are projected to increase by 15% to 21% overall, while the S&P 500’s annual gain is expected to be 9.55% and Nasdaq’s — 12.79%.

Judging by the record, S&P 500 has been rising over the past year by 1.5% on average, while Nasdaq has been up 3.3% over the same period. Here are the key reasons for the correction: S&P 500 has historically risen by 1% in the first two months of the year, while Nasdaq — by 2.8%.

So far, investors have been betting heavily on the “AI-picks” infrastructure. Microsoft is up 17%, and Oracle has risen by 35%. However, the main question remains: what is the next step in the AI race? The “Magnificent Seven” (Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, Amazon and Tesla) will likely be close to 10% lower, with the biggest correction in 2025, and the most likely shift of capital toward chipmakers. The market expects the IPO of SpaceX to be priced at $2.3 trillion per month, which will be supported by the changes in the chip market.

Meanwhile, El País notes that the share of investors who are betting on the future is growing. That said, the key point is that the most important thing is not the technology itself, but the companies behind it. That is exactly why Nvidia is the focus: Nvidia is up 4.5% for the year (despite the correction), while Microsoft is up 24%.

However, it is worth noting that the short-term outlook is not clear, and the uncertainty may persist until 2028. ING, for example, expects global chip spending to rise to $713 billion in 2026, $907 billion in 2027, $991 billion in 2028, and surpass $1 trillion in 2029.

As CNN’s Fareed Zakaria points out, the focus is shifting to the war in Iran. Analysts say that the US could face a new wave of risks, and that the situation in the Middle East could worsen.

Tags: USA/Economy/Technology/AI