Putin’s armada of tankers: the US says the Russian fleet will run out of time, but the RF will keep trying to supply fuel for 2026

• ISW believes that the Russian troop advance in Donetsk Oblast in 2026 will be slower than expected, and that this is due to the fact that the Russian side will have to deal with a shortage of fuel supplies.
• Reuters and Kpler believe that the search by Russia for Japanese jet fuel is aimed at offsetting the impact of restrictions on the import of jet fuel.
• BBC Verify, using evidence from satellite imagery, says that the Russian side has been supplying fuel to the Azov Sea region, and that it is likely that this is connected to the use of the same fuel supply routes.

According to RBC Ukraine and RBC Ukraine,

Russia’s armed forces, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), cannot rely on a shortage of fuel supplies for the Russian advance in Donetsk Oblast, and that the Russian side’s fuel supply problems will likely intensify in 2026.

As ISW writes, Russian troops are “moving forward” with the help of fuel supplies, which are likely to increase in 2025. For example, the Institute estimates that in 2025 the RF will have to supply 2,190 kilometers of fuel pipelines, while in 2026 it will have to supply 622 km. In other words, the pace of fuel pipeline construction will slow down.

The material also notes that one of the main reasons is that the Russian side is using “infiltrations,” which allow it to control the territory of Ukraine: for example, the possibility of maintaining a stable supply of fuel to the front line in 2026 is considered to be 97 km. According to ISW.

President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky said that the success of the Ukrainian army depends on “the number of drones,” and that the Ukrainian side will be able to reduce the number of Russian attacks. In addition, the president said that Ukraine needs more air defense to protect its cities and critical infrastructure.

According to ISW, the number of Russian logistics routes is likely to increase from 210 to 303 in the red zone. The material also states that two out of 1–2 million Ukrainian citizens were killed in Crimea. Commander Sil bezpilotnykh systemiv Ukrainy (the “Madjar” drone unit) has been using Telegram to report that in the red zone the situation is worsening.

According to Reuters, Russia’s internal sources say that the Russian side has been importing fuel through a loophole, which is connected to the use of Japanese supplies.

According to the material, Russia is purchasing aviation fuel from Pinechi-Skhidnoy Aziyi, and the three largest shipments of jet fuel were delivered by sea through the Japanese ports. The material also notes that in 2022 Russia bought aviation fuel in Japan: according to Kpler data, it purchased 22,000 barrels of jet fuel from Yoshou to Vladivostok. According to Kpler, exports of Russian jet fuel were in the range of up to 13,000 barrels per day, but from 2025 the shipments will increase to about 30,000 barrels per day.

The material also states that the difficulty in Russia’s fuel supplies is linked to seasonal changes. BBC News Russian Service on Telegram reports that BBC Verify identified the fuel supply routes through the Azov Sea and the Black Sea, and that Rosneft is likely involved in the process. The material also says that the aircraft flew from the Azov Sea to Moscow and the Moscow region.

The material also notes that the number of fuel shipments is decreasing, and that the Russian side is using new supply routes. In particular, it is stated that the Russian side is trying to resolve the problem of fuel shortages in 2026 by increasing supplies through the Azov Sea and the Black Sea.

Tags: Russia/Economy/Energy/Aviation